The stock market is falling swiftly, and you don’t have the luxury of time. So I’ll get straight to the point:
If you haven’t already taken the necessary steps in removing money from the stock market and moving into other vehicles of interest, then you better act quick! Be prepared for a very gloomy 2008+.
But beware: Most brokers will try to talk you out of it . They have a hidden agenda. They want to keep you as a customer; and they know that, once customers sell their stocks, they often close their brokerage accounts.
With this in mind, many brokers have been trained with up to seven sales pitches designed to keep you in the market come hell or high water.
Here are some of those pitches!:
Broker Pitch #1: "Buy more." Their argument goes something like this: "Your stock is now selling at bargain prices. So if you didn’t already own 100 shares, you’d probably be thinking about buying — not selling. Instead, why not double down and take advantage of dollar-cost averaging?"
The more likely result in a bear market: Every time your stock falls by another $1 per share, instead of losing just $100, you’ll be losing $200.
Broker Pitch #2: "Hold for a recovery!" They argue that the "market will inevitably recover," that the "recovery is always bigger and better than any near-term decline," and that you should therefore "always invest for the long term."
The reality: Bear markets can last for years. It could take still longer for the averages to recover to current levels. During all those years, your money is dead in the water. And don’t forget: If the company goes out of business, your stock will be worthless and will never recover.
Broker Pitch #3: "You can’t afford to take a loss." If you insist on selling, brokers often come back with this approach: "Your losses are just on paper right now. So if you sell, all you’ll be doing is locking them in. You can’t afford to do that."
What they don’t tell you is that there’s no fundamental difference between a paper loss and a realized loss. Nor do they reveal that the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) requires brokers themselves to value the securities they hold in their own portfolio at the current market price — to recognize the losses as real whether they’ve sold the securities or not.
Broker Pitch #4: "You can’t afford to take a profit and pay the taxes." If you’ve got a profit in a stock, they say: "All you’ll be doing is writing a fat check to Uncle Sam. You can’t afford to do that."
The reality: Although it’s not shown on your brokerage statement, the true value of your portfolio is NET of taxes. So whether you or your heirs pay those taxes now or in the future is mostly a difference of timing. And if our next president approves legislation to raise capital gains taxes next year, it could actually cost you more. Besides, which would you prefer — paying some taxes on profits or paying no taxes on losses?
Broker Pitch #5: The "don’t-be-a-fool" argument. "Stocks look very cheap now and we’re very close to rock bottom," goes the script. "We may even be right at the bottom. If you sell now, three months from now, you’ll be kicking yourself. Don’t be a fool."
The truth: Brokers don’t have the faintest idea where the bottom is. Nor does anyone at their firm. And they know darn well that stocks do not hit bottom just because they look cheap. Worse, for their own accounts, brokers and their affiliates have been — and are likely to continue — liquidating shares, often targeting precisely the same shares they pitch to their customers.
Broker Pitch #6: "The market is turning." If the market enjoys an intermediate bounce, which it certainly will at some point soon, this pitch is invoked. "Look at this big rally!" they say. "Your shares are finally starting to come back. After waiting all this time, are you sure you want to run away now — just when things are starting to turn around in your favor?"
The truth: In a bear market, intermediate rallies actually give you the best opportunity to sell.
Broker Pitch #7: The last ace-in-the hole in the broker’s arsenal of pitches is the patriotic approach. "Do you realize," they’ll say, "what could happen if everyone does what you’re talking about doing? That’s when the market would really nosedive. But if you and millions of other investors would just have a bit more faith in our economy — in our country — then the market will recover and everyone will come out ahead."
The truth: Locking up precious capital in sinking enterprises is not exactly good for our country. Better to safeguard the funds and reinvest them in better opportunities at a better time.
The truth: Locking up precious capital in sinking enterprises is not exactly good for our country. Better to safeguard the funds and reinvest them in better opportunities at a better time.
So make your move and get out of stocks, its not a good time bet your money in a losing market!
Truth is, as it has always been said, cut your losses and let your winners run!
Be safe out there folks!
Respectfully,
Tony Tovar
P.S. Special thanks to Martin D. Weiss (credit)
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com




July 2nd, 2008 at 7:21 am
Tony,
Thank you for your informative post.
Since many investors act on the advice of their broker, brokers have a professional duty to provide independent and objective advice to their clients.
Unfortunately, as you say, brokers have a conflict of interest, and this may compromise the objectivity of their advice, particularly in the case of less reputable brokers.
Accordingly, the arguments above should be viewed with skeptism, to say the least.
I particularly like the point you made in relation to Broker Pitch #2, which is particularly relevant to investors from the United States.
The United States economy faces severe structural problems, not only in the finance sector, particularly with respect to the finance sector and unsustainable levels of household debt. Although I do not hope for this, the unfortunate reality that either a severe and/or long lasting recession is a realistic possibity. At best, the American economy will see less than average growth over the medium term.
Only companies with strong balance sheets as well as sound business models are likely to survive (and eventually thrive) through the challenging times ahead.
However, I am inclined to (respectfully) disagree with your assertion that investors should necessarily exit the stock market. Instead, I would be looking for fundamentally sound companies, those sound balance sheets, products or services, a strong market position and preferably, extensive geographical diversification. Also, companies with extensive geographical diversification will be well placed to handle the difficulties in the States.
Thanks again for your post. As you say, broker advice should be treated with caution.
Cheers
Andrew
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:21 pm
You make some very valid points. The past 3 years the market has become very volatile, great for day or swing traders, but tough for the value investor or buy and hold (even short term) investor. There’s some value out there, the difficult part is distinguishing which stocks might bounce back and which have only begun their fall.
Cash is always a good option, banks like ING and HSBC always have high-interest savings accounts (currently at 4.5%- not great-but safe) available, and bonds are not bad either, just kind of limited and again, not great. Thanks for writing a terrific and informative blog.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Broker Therapy; Is your broker playing you?…
The stock market is falling swiftly, and you don’t have the luxury of time. So I’ll get straight to the point:
If you haven’t already taken the necessary steps in removing money from the stock market and moving into other vehicles of interest, t…
July 6th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your post. I am inclined to agree with you.
However it may also be good to note that on the other hand, stocks in the defensive sector may do well, so it may be good to look at stocks in those areas - such as medical, alternative fuel, education, etc. In most bearish markets, fund institutions like to plough their money into defensive sectors.
All in all, I do agree that it is tough to navigate in a bearish market and you will never know when the curve is going to make its way up again.
An alternative may be to consider options trading where you can play the market in either direction - even when it moves sideways. I’ve made some good money from options.
Just my 2 cents.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
“Respectfully,
Tony Tovar
P.S. Special thanks to Martin D. Weiss (credit)”
Hey Tony, what a nice afterthought to bother mentioning Martin D. Weiss. Why didn’t you include link to the original article? Or at LEAST post the following statement he has at the end of these articles giving people PERMISSION to repost HIS information elsewhere? Especially considering you copied it word for word…..
“Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
This has been done and taken care of. I don’t usually read the disclaimer but ill post from now on. Thanks Jack